Riskiest U.S. Banks - Q2 2026

Data Period: Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026)
Last Updated: August 20, 2026
Next Update: Q3 2026 (Expected October 2026)
Total Banks Scored: 4,296

Overview

This analysis identifies U.S. FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions with elevated failure risk. Rankings are based on ensemble machine learning models trained on historical bank failures and quarterly financial data from 2006-2025. Each bank receives a Bank Score that is a weighted average of two failure probabilities: near-term (1-quarter ahead) and medium-term (4-quarters ahead). Lower scores indicate higher failure risk.

Risk Distribution Summary

120

At-Risk Banks

2.8%

Of Total Banks

76.1

Avg Bank Score

23.9%

Avg Failure Prob

Risk Category	Score Range	Count	% of Total	Cumulative
Extreme Risk	0–20	4	0.09%	4 (0.09%)
Very High Risk	20–40	5	0.12%	9 (0.21%)
High Risk	40–60	9	0.21%	18 (0.42%)
Elevated Risk	60–80	26	0.61%	44 (1.02%)
Moderate Risk	80–90	76	1.77%	120 (2.79%)

⚙️ Methodology

Our failure prediction framework employs Gradient Boosting (1Q horizon) and Random Forest (4Q horizon) models, selected for their superior performance in handling the extreme class imbalance inherent in bank failure prediction (Cole & White, 2012; Jarrow & van Deventer, 2005). The models achieve test-set AUC scores of 0.797 (1Q) and 0.818 (4Q), indicating strong discriminatory power.

Key predictive features include traditional CAMELS framework ratios—capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, earnings, liquidity, and sensitivity to market risk—supplemented by Cole & White's (2012) growth deviation measures that capture abnormal expansion patterns associated with heightened risk-taking. Recent research by Correia, Luck & Verner (2026) confirms that bank failures across 160 years of U.S. history are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics, with deteriorating fundamentals representing the primary cause of failure.

Selected References:
Cole, R. A., & White, L. J. (2012). Déjà vu all over again: The causes of U.S. commercial bank failures this time around. Journal of Financial Services Research, 42(1), 5–29.
Correia, S., Luck, S., & Verner, E. (2026). Failing banks. Journal of Finance, forthcoming.
Jarrow, R. A., & van Deventer, D. R. (2005). Estimating default correlations using a reduced-form model. Risk, 18(8), 73–77.

At-Risk Banks - Q2 2026

Showing all 120 banks with Bank Score below 90. Banks are ranked by Bank Score (lowest = highest risk).

Rank	Bank Name	State	Risk Category	Score
1	LAMONT BANK OF ST. JOHN	WA	Extreme Risk	0.9
2	TIOGA-FRANKLIN SAVINGS BANK	PA	Extreme Risk	3.7
3	SUMMIT NATIONAL BANK	WY	Extreme Risk	5.1
4	CONNECT COMMUNITY BANK	WA	Extreme Risk	12.2
5	MAUCH CHUNK TRUST COMPANY	PA	Very High Risk	26.1
6	UNION COUNTY SAVINGS BANK	NJ	Very High Risk	30.7
7	FIRST STATE BANK OF RANDOLPH COUNTY	GA	Very High Risk	31.5
8	NANO BANC	CA	Very High Risk	35.3
9	COLUMBIA SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATION	WI	Very High Risk	38.5
10	OLD GLORY BANK	OK	High Risk	41.2
11	TRUSTTEXAS BANK, S.S.B.	TX	High Risk	51.2
12	ANCHORAGE DIGITAL BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	SD	High Risk	51.6
13	PBT BANCORP	KY	High Risk	52.3
14	ADIRONDACK BANK	NY	High Risk	53.9
15	TALBOT STATE BANK	GA	High Risk	56.1
16	FARMERS AND MECHANICS FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK	IN	High Risk	56.1
17	BANK47	AL	High Risk	56.3
18	FIRST NATIONAL BANK AND TRUST COMPANY	IL	High Risk	56.8
19	DRAKE BANK	MN	Elevated Risk	64.7
20	PROGROWTH BANK	MN	Elevated Risk	64.8
21	NEWTEK BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	FL	Elevated Risk	66.3
22	STERLING FEDERAL BANK, FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK	IL	Elevated Risk	66.4
23	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF LAKE JACKSON	TX	Elevated Risk	69.4
24	EAST WISCONSIN SAVINGS BANK	WI	Elevated Risk	69.8
25	BAYFIRST NATIONAL BANK	FL	Elevated Risk	70.0
26	ANAHUAC NATIONAL BANK	TX	Elevated Risk	72.4
27	SOUTHPOINT BANK	AL	Elevated Risk	72.5
28	GRAND RIVERS COMMUNITY BANK	IL	Elevated Risk	73.0
29	42 NORTH PRIVATE BANK	MA	Elevated Risk	73.3
30	ONE AMERICAN BANK	SD	Elevated Risk	73.8
31	DEVON BANK	IL	Elevated Risk	74.0
32	FARMERS STATE BANK	IL	Elevated Risk	74.5
33	VARO BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	UT	Elevated Risk	74.9
34	EASTERN NATIONAL BANK	FL	Elevated Risk	75.9
35	FIELDPOINT PRIVATE BANK & TRUST	CT	Elevated Risk	76.2
36	FIRST FINANCIAL BANK	AL	Elevated Risk	77.2
37	UNION BANKING COMPANY, THE	OH	Elevated Risk	77.6
38	YOUNG AMERICANS BANK	CO	Elevated Risk	77.7
39	BANK OF VICI	OK	Elevated Risk	78.3
40	TRI-VALLEY BANK	IA	Elevated Risk	79.0
41	BANK OF GLEN BURNIE, THE	MD	Elevated Risk	79.1
42	SQUARE FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC.	UT	Elevated Risk	79.2
43	FIRST STATE BANK OF FOUNTAIN, THE	MN	Elevated Risk	79.6
44	CHAIN BRIDGE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	VA	Elevated Risk	80.0
45	SMBC MANUBANK	CA	Moderate Risk	80.3
46	FM BANK AND TRUST	AR	Moderate Risk	80.4
47	HADDON SAVINGS BANK	NJ	Moderate Risk	80.8
48	BANK OF LITTLE ROCK	AR	Moderate Risk	81.6
49	STRIDE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	OK	Moderate Risk	81.7
50	NEIGHBORS BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	81.7
51	USAA FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK	AZ	Moderate Risk	82.1
52	FIRST STATE BANK OF RED WING, THE	MN	Moderate Risk	82.2
53	PHENIX-GIRARD BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	82.4
54	COMMERCEONE BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	82.6
55	TRANSPECOS BANKS, SSB	TX	Moderate Risk	82.6
56	FIRST SOUTHERN BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	82.6
57	MIDLAND FEDERAL SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATION	IL	Moderate Risk	82.9
58	BANK OF CADIZ AND TRUST COMPANY	KY	Moderate Risk	83.0
59	STREATOR HOME SAVINGS BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	83.4
60	TWIN CEDARS BANK	IA	Moderate Risk	83.6
61	UNB BANK	PA	Moderate Risk	83.6
62	ANCHOR BANK	FL	Moderate Risk	83.8
63	CARVER FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK	NY	Moderate Risk	83.9
64	CITIZENS STATE BANK	MI	Moderate Risk	84.3
65	COMMUNITY BANK OF RAYMORE	MO	Moderate Risk	84.5
66	TRI-COUNTY BANK, THE	NE	Moderate Risk	84.5
67	BESSEMER TRUST COMPANY	NJ	Moderate Risk	84.6
68	ALL CAPITAL BANK	OK	Moderate Risk	84.7
69	CREDIT ONE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	NV	Moderate Risk	84.8
70	COASTAL COMMUNITY BANK	WA	Moderate Risk	84.8
71	FIRST STATE BANK OF ROSEMOUNT, THE	MN	Moderate Risk	84.9
72	COLUMN NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	CA	Moderate Risk	85.0
73	GREEN DOT BANK	UT	Moderate Risk	85.1
74	CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK OF HAMMOND, THE	NY	Moderate Risk	85.1
75	FIRST BANK OF COASTAL GEORGIA	GA	Moderate Risk	85.1
76	UNIBANK	WA	Moderate Risk	85.2
77	SUMMIT BANK	CA	Moderate Risk	85.4
78	PARAMOUNT BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	85.5
79	HARVEST BANK	MN	Moderate Risk	85.8
80	MIDWEST REGIONAL BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	86.1
81	ASTRA BANK	KS	Moderate Risk	86.3
82	DU QUOIN STATE BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	86.3
83	CITIZENS BANK OF THE MIDWEST	MO	Moderate Risk	86.4
84	CITIZENS BANK AND TRUST	FL	Moderate Risk	86.5
85	COMPASS SAVINGS BANK	PA	Moderate Risk	87.1
86	ARLINGTON STATE BANK	MN	Moderate Risk	87.6
87	PEOPLES BANK & TRUST COMPANY	OK	Moderate Risk	87.6
88	LINEAGE BANK	TN	Moderate Risk	87.6
89	CITIZENS BANK & TRUST CO., HUTCHINSON, MINN.	MN	Moderate Risk	87.7
90	GRAND MARAIS STATE BANK	MN	Moderate Risk	87.8
91	PROSPECT BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	87.8
92	FIRST & PEOPLES BANK AND TRUST COMPANY	KY	Moderate Risk	88.0
93	CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK OF CHEBOYGAN	MI	Moderate Risk	88.0
94	HOME SAVINGS BANK, FSB	KY	Moderate Risk	88.2
95	LASALLE STATE BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	88.2
96	HOME STATE BANK	IA	Moderate Risk	88.2
97	BHM BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	88.4
98	CAPRA BANK	IA	Moderate Risk	88.4
99	BATTLE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	MN	Moderate Risk	88.5
100	FIRST STATE BANK	OK	Moderate Risk	88.6
101	BANK OF TIOGA, THE	ND	Moderate Risk	88.6
102	BANK OF LAFAYETTE, THE	GA	Moderate Risk	88.6
103	PATRIOT BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	CT	Moderate Risk	88.7
104	BRANNEN BANK	FL	Moderate Risk	88.8
105	FIRST NATIONAL BANK	NM	Moderate Risk	88.8
106	FARMERS STATE BANK, THE	OK	Moderate Risk	88.9
107	LINCOLN SAVINGS BANK	IA	Moderate Risk	88.9
108	BESSEMER TRUST COMPANY OF NEVADA, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	NV	Moderate Risk	89.0
109	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF KANSAS	KS	Moderate Risk	89.1
110	FIRST SECURITY BANK, THE	OK	Moderate Risk	89.2
111	LEGACY BANK	CA	Moderate Risk	89.2
112	INTEGRO BANK	AZ	Moderate Risk	89.3
113	LEAD BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	89.4
114	PORTAGE BANK	WA	Moderate Risk	89.4
115	FIRST TEXAS NATIONAL BANK	TX	Moderate Risk	89.6
116	M C BANK & TRUST COMPANY	LA	Moderate Risk	89.7
117	FUNDBANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	TX	Moderate Risk	89.8
118	PACIFIC COAST BANKERS' BANK	CA	Moderate Risk	89.8
119	HOUSTON BANK & TRUST	TX	Moderate Risk	89.9
120	BANK OF LABOR	KS	Moderate Risk	90.0

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

These predictions are statistical estimates based on historical patterns and publicly available financial data. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or regulatory assessments. Bank failure is a rare event influenced by numerous factors including management decisions, economic conditions, regulatory actions, and idiosyncratic shocks not captured in quarterly financial ratios.

Low Bank Scores indicate elevated statistical risk based on historical failure patterns, but many banks with low scores do not fail, while some failures occur at institutions with high scores. Users should consult official regulatory sources (FDIC, OCC, Federal Reserve) and conduct independent due diligence before making any financial decisions.

Model Limitations: Predictions are backward-looking and may not capture structural changes in banking regulation, unprecedented market conditions, or institution-specific circumstances not reflected in Call Report data.

Model Performance & Validation

Our models are validated on out-of-sample data from 2020-2025, a period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent monetary tightening cycle. The Gradient Boosting model (1Q) correctly identified high-risk institutions prior to several 2023-2026 failures, while the Random Forest model (4Q) demonstrates superior performance in capturing medium-term deterioration patterns.

Ongoing Refinement: Models are retrained annually incorporating the most recent failure data and regulatory reporting changes. Feature importance analysis confirms that capital adequacy, profitability metrics, and abnormal growth patterns remain the strongest predictors across economic cycles.

Data Sources

All financial data sourced from FDIC Call Reports (FFIEC 031/041) filed quarterly by all insured commercial banks and savings institutions. Historical failure dates obtained from FDIC Failed Bank List. Models use standardized accounting definitions consistent across the 2006-2026 sample period.