Riskiest U.S. Banks - Q1 2026

Data Period: Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026)
Last Updated: May 16, 2026
Next Update: Q2 2026 (Expected July 2026)
Total Banks Scored: 4,335

Overview

This analysis identifies U.S. FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions with elevated failure risk. Rankings are based on ensemble machine learning models trained on historical bank failures and quarterly financial data from 2006-2025. Each bank receives a Bank Score that is a weighted average of two failure probabilities: near-term (1-quarter ahead) and medium-term (4-quarters ahead). Lower scores indicate higher failure risk.

Risk Distribution Summary

106

At-Risk Banks

2.4%

Of Total Banks

73.8

Avg Bank Score

26.2%

Avg Failure Prob

Risk Category	Score Range	Count	% of Total	Cumulative
Extreme Risk	0–20	5	0.12%	5 (0.12%)
Very High Risk	20–40	6	0.14%	11 (0.25%)
High Risk	40–60	9	0.21%	20 (0.46%)
Elevated Risk	60–80	23	0.53%	43 (0.99%)
Moderate Risk	80–90	63	1.45%	106 (2.45%)

⚙️ Methodology

Our failure prediction framework employs Gradient Boosting (1Q horizon) and Random Forest (4Q horizon) models, selected for their superior performance in handling the extreme class imbalance inherent in bank failure prediction (Cole & White, 2012; Jarrow & van Deventer, 2005). The models achieve test-set AUC scores of 0.797 (1Q) and 0.818 (4Q), indicating strong discriminatory power.

Key predictive features include traditional CAMELS framework ratios—capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, earnings, liquidity, and sensitivity to market risk—supplemented by Cole & White's (2012) growth deviation measures that capture abnormal expansion patterns associated with heightened risk-taking. Recent research by Correia, Luck & Verner (2026) confirms that bank failures across 160 years of U.S. history are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics, with deteriorating fundamentals representing the primary cause of failure.

Selected References:
Cole, R. A., & White, L. J. (2012). Déjà vu all over again: The causes of U.S. commercial bank failures this time around. Journal of Financial Services Research, 42(1), 5-29.
Correia, S., Luck, S., & Verner, E. (2026). Failing banks. Journal of Finance, forthcoming.
Jarrow, R. A., & van Deventer, D. R. (2005). Estimating default correlations using a reduced-form model. Risk, 18(8), 73-77.

At-Risk Banks - Q1 2026

Showing all 106 banks with Bank Score below 90. Banks are ranked by Bank Score (lowest = highest risk).

Rank	Bank Name	State	Risk Category	Score
1	TIOGA-FRANKLIN SAVINGS BANK	PA	Extreme Risk	10.0
2	SUMMIT NATIONAL BANK	WY	Extreme Risk	13.3
3	SMALL BUSINESS BANK	KS	Extreme Risk	16.1
4	LAMONT BANK OF ST. JOHN	WA	Extreme Risk	16.8
5	KENTLAND FEDERAL SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATION	IN	Extreme Risk	18.1
6	CONNECT COMMUNITY BANK	WA	Very High Risk	24.6
7	MAUCH CHUNK TRUST COMPANY	PA	Very High Risk	28.0
8	COLUMBIA SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATION	WI	Very High Risk	34.5
9	TRUSTTEXAS BANK, S.S.B.	TX	Very High Risk	35.6
10	DRAKE BANK	MN	Very High Risk	37.6
11	OLD GLORY BANK	OK	Very High Risk	37.9
12	UNION COUNTY SAVINGS BANK	NJ	High Risk	40.9
13	FIRST STATE BANK OF RANDOLPH COUNTY	GA	High Risk	43.7
14	BANK OF VICI	OK	High Risk	48.3
15	FIRST FINANCIAL BANK	AL	High Risk	48.4
16	FIRST STATE BANK OF ROSEMOUNT, THE	MN	High Risk	48.9
17	FIELDPOINT PRIVATE BANK & TRUST	CT	High Risk	52.7
18	BANK OF CADIZ AND TRUST COMPANY	KY	High Risk	57.7
19	FARMERS STATE BANK	IL	High Risk	58.3
20	PBT BANCORP	KY	High Risk	59.5
21	TALBOT STATE BANK	GA	Elevated Risk	62.4
22	UNION BANKING COMPANY, THE	OH	Elevated Risk	64.4
23	NANO BANC	CA	Elevated Risk	64.7
24	PHENIX-GIRARD BANK	AL	Elevated Risk	65.8
25	FIRST STATE BANK OF FOUNTAIN, THE	MN	Elevated Risk	66.2
26	EAST WISCONSIN SAVINGS BANK	WI	Elevated Risk	66.5
27	PROGROWTH BANK	MN	Elevated Risk	68.4
28	TRI-VALLEY BANK	IA	Elevated Risk	69.1
29	FIRST STATE BANK OF RED WING, THE	MN	Elevated Risk	70.1
30	DEVON BANK	IL	Elevated Risk	70.1
31	BANK OF LAFAYETTE, THE	GA	Elevated Risk	70.6
32	HERITAGE BANK	IA	Elevated Risk	70.9
33	DU QUOIN STATE BANK	IL	Elevated Risk	71.7
34	ANAHUAC NATIONAL BANK	TX	Elevated Risk	71.9
35	ONE AMERICAN BANK	SD	Elevated Risk	72.9
36	CITIZENS BANK AND TRUST	FL	Elevated Risk	73.8
37	UINTA BANK	WY	Elevated Risk	75.1
38	EASTERN NATIONAL BANK	FL	Elevated Risk	75.5
39	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF KANSAS	KS	Elevated Risk	75.6
40	NEWTEK BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	FL	Elevated Risk	76.6
41	SMBC MANUBANK	CA	Elevated Risk	77.1
42	BAYFIRST NATIONAL BANK	FL	Elevated Risk	78.9
43	FIRST NATIONAL BANK AND TRUST COMPANY	IL	Elevated Risk	79.9
44	USAA FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK	AZ	Moderate Risk	80.1
45	GRAND RIVERS COMMUNITY BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	80.6
46	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF LAKE JACKSON	TX	Moderate Risk	80.7
47	ODIN STATE BANK	MN	Moderate Risk	81.5
48	FARMERS AND MECHANICS FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK	IN	Moderate Risk	81.6
49	BRANNEN BANK	FL	Moderate Risk	82.1
50	HERITAGE BANK OF SAINT TAMMANY	LA	Moderate Risk	82.4
51	BANK47	AL	Moderate Risk	82.6
52	HADDON SAVINGS BANK	NJ	Moderate Risk	83.2
53	SQUARE FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC.	UT	Moderate Risk	83.5
54	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF ANSON, THE	TX	Moderate Risk	83.5
55	JONESBORO STATE BANK	LA	Moderate Risk	83.5
56	FIRST SOUTHERN BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	83.6
57	42 NORTH PRIVATE BANK	MA	Moderate Risk	83.8
58	PROSPECT BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	83.9
59	YOUNG AMERICANS BANK	CO	Moderate Risk	83.9
60	STATE SAVINGS BANK	IA	Moderate Risk	84.5
61	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF HUGO	CO	Moderate Risk	84.8
62	GREEN DOT BANK	UT	Moderate Risk	85.2
63	FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF ASPERMONT, THE	TX	Moderate Risk	85.5
64	FM BANK AND TRUST	AR	Moderate Risk	85.6
65	BANK OF GLEN BURNIE, THE	MD	Moderate Risk	85.6
66	FIRST & PEOPLES BANK AND TRUST COMPANY	KY	Moderate Risk	85.7
67	FIRST NATIONAL BANK	TX	Moderate Risk	85.8
68	STREATOR HOME SAVINGS BANK	IL	Moderate Risk	86.0
69	ARLINGTON STATE BANK	MN	Moderate Risk	86.1
70	BESSEMER TRUST COMPANY	NJ	Moderate Risk	86.1
71	FIRST BANK OF COASTAL GEORGIA	GA	Moderate Risk	86.4
72	BANK OF TIOGA, THE	ND	Moderate Risk	86.6
73	BHM BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	86.8
74	FIRST STATE BANK	OK	Moderate Risk	86.9
75	FIRST NATIONAL BANK IN TRINIDAD	CO	Moderate Risk	87.1
76	UNB BANK	PA	Moderate Risk	87.2
77	HOMETOWN SAVINGS BANK, THE	IN	Moderate Risk	87.2
78	ASTRA BANK	KS	Moderate Risk	87.6
79	BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON, THE	NY	Moderate Risk	87.7
80	CITIZENS BANK OF THE MIDWEST	MO	Moderate Risk	87.7
81	TBO BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	87.8
82	FLINT HILLS BANK	KS	Moderate Risk	87.8
83	LINEAGE BANK	TN	Moderate Risk	88.0
84	TRANSPECOS BANKS, SSB	TX	Moderate Risk	88.1
85	PORTAGE BANK	WA	Moderate Risk	88.2
86	BATTLE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	MN	Moderate Risk	88.4
87	CALIFORNIA PACIFIC BANK	CA	Moderate Risk	88.5
88	SOUTHPOINT BANK	AL	Moderate Risk	88.5
89	COMMERCIAL BANK OF OZARK, THE	AL	Moderate Risk	88.6
90	SECURITY STATE BANK OF AITKIN	MN	Moderate Risk	88.8
91	SOLERA NATIONAL BANK	CO	Moderate Risk	89.0
92	COMMUNITY BANK OF RAYMORE	MO	Moderate Risk	89.0
93	HOME STATE BANK	IA	Moderate Risk	89.2
94	SSB BANK	PA	Moderate Risk	89.4
95	CITIZENS STATE BANK	MI	Moderate Risk	89.4
96	INDEPENDENT CORRESPONDENT BANKERS' BANK, INC.	KY	Moderate Risk	89.5
97	BANK OF COMMERCE AND TRUST COMPANY, THE	KS	Moderate Risk	89.5
98	FIRST NATIONAL BANK	NM	Moderate Risk	89.6
99	TEXAS NATIONAL BANK OF JACKSONVILLE	TX	Moderate Risk	89.7
100	FCNB BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	89.7
101	NEIGHBORS BANK	MO	Moderate Risk	89.8
102	WALDEN MUTUAL BANK	NH	Moderate Risk	89.8
103	CB&S BANK, INC.	AL	Moderate Risk	89.8
104	VARO BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	UT	Moderate Risk	89.9
105	HARVEST BANK	MN	Moderate Risk	90.0
106	UNIBANK	WA	Moderate Risk	90.0

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

These predictions are statistical estimates based on historical patterns and publicly available financial data. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or regulatory assessments. Bank failure is a rare event influenced by numerous factors including management decisions, economic conditions, regulatory actions, and idiosyncratic shocks not captured in quarterly financial ratios.

Low Bank Scores indicate elevated statistical risk based on historical failure patterns, but many banks with low scores do not fail, while some failures occur at institutions with high scores. Users should consult official regulatory sources (FDIC, OCC, Federal Reserve) and conduct independent due diligence before making any financial decisions.

Model Limitations: Predictions are backward-looking and may not capture structural changes in banking regulation, unprecedented market conditions, or institution-specific circumstances not reflected in Call Report data.

Model Performance & Validation

Our models are validated on out-of-sample data from 2020-2025, a period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent monetary tightening cycle. The Gradient Boosting model (1Q) correctly identified high-risk institutions prior to several 2023-2026 failures, while the Random Forest model (4Q) demonstrates superior performance in capturing medium-term deterioration patterns.

Ongoing Refinement: Models are retrained annually incorporating the most recent failure data and regulatory reporting changes. Feature importance analysis confirms that capital adequacy, profitability metrics, and abnormal growth patterns remain the strongest predictors across economic cycles.

Data Sources

All financial data sourced from FDIC Call Reports (FFIEC 031/041) filed quarterly by all insured commercial banks and savings institutions. Historical failure dates obtained from FDIC Failed Bank List. Models use standardized accounting definitions consistent across the 2006-2026 sample period.